Small, steady, and incremental changes are often ignored and tend to go unnoticed. If someone takes away 1$ every day for 365 days from our bank then it doesn’t matter to us and it is not attention-worthy enough. We step into action or focus only when 365$ is taken away in a single day even though the quantum of the amount is the same except for the time. The frog too as the myth says jumps out of a pot filled with boiling water but stays comfortably in normal water even though we slowly raise the temperature to a boiling point that might kill it.
Size and Decision
If there are 10 options before us, then suppose we have picked option number 3. Here we can easily judge and evaluate whether we opted for the right one or not. In other words, we can say how good our picking was based on a comparison with the other 9 options. (Assuming that you have a decent amount of time on your hands)
However, if there is an overload in a number of options, probably 10 million or so then we can never know whether our decision was accurate or not. we can only at best assume that we made a smart choice. As the sample size (Using the lingo of statistics here) increases, our ability to decide decreases, and the analysis falter. Unless we have a supercomputer in our heads, it is hard as we progress into the information age. Big data and AI will aid us for sure but a common man or an ordinary individual (not organizations) neither have the resources nor the technical know-how under the belt to do so.
Unable to handle this gap, the mind invents more heuristics, shortcuts, use-less logical fallacies, and unknown biases which hide in the Freudian unconscious rarely accessible to 6-7 seconds attention-owning sapiens.
Anecdotal Fallacy
Exceptions should not be used to dismiss sound arguments. Yes, the chain smokers lived till 98, Yes, the alcoholics
reached full life expectancy, Yes, the guy didn’t study and got straight A’s, Yes, toxic work culture gave huge profits for the company, Yes, eating high-fat foods didn’t give the heart attack, Yes, all these things did happen.
There’s no doubt about that but they do not in any way nullify the general rules and principles. Believing contrarily is the perfect example of anecdotal fallacy.
By the way, high-school drop-outs have become billionaires but it doesn’t mean you drop out of it now.
Learn and Leap
What I learned after many trials and errors and mishaps is that one should not chase success right away.
Michael Watkins puts it perfectly in his context- ” There’s a lot you don’t know and in fact, there may be lots you don’t even know that you don’t know. The time before you actually start is a really crucial time when you should focus on preparing yourself.” Bias for action is good because we usually use planning as a decoy to procrastinate but jumping into the ocean without any clue about the depth is suicidal. If you think over-preparation is bad then under-preparation too is equally bad. Before you start the game, understand the rules, exceptions, variables (Big and small), information, and data that might increase the odds of winning by a few percentage points. The roadmap from the start to the end will save you.
Change
Heraclitus, an ancient greek philosopher commented that life is always in flux. He was simply pointing out that nothing
is permanent in life. In other words, this too shall pass. Marcus Aurelius too in Meditations noted that everything is
destined to change, to be transformed so that new things are born. The wheel moves is what the wise have noted.
But, yes there is a but to almost everything. As people age, they seldom welcome change. The older we get, the more stubborn we become. Everything is about ego when the bald head and bottomed belly kick in. When someone targets our political party, we target them. If some random teenager mocks your favorite movie, then you are ready for a fight. In fact, a lot of us become conservative and believe superstitions, stupid medicines, and rumors that even tabloids are envious of. As we age, our ability to welcome change with open hands decreases. At least, we should be able to acknowledge this.
Framing effect
How you say matters more than what you say even when both have the same meaning. There’s a hell lot of difference in how people will react when you say there is a 90% chance you will survive this operation, don’t worry vs but there is a 10% chance you will die from this operation, so, are you up for this?
Advertisers often use this to their advantage. The commonly referred example is the frozen yogurt one. The 20% fat yogurt is shown as 80% fat-free. It is simply the old adage glass half-full, glass half-empty, branded intellectually.
Often it is used along with anchoring bias. 50$ on a t-shirt is struck off and sold for 35$, and we never question the fact of whether does it have the value of 50$ in the first place. And
If possible, always stick to the positive frame and avoid the negative one, as humans have loss aversion in them inherently.
By the way, 399$ price tag works over 400$ price tag.
Black and White thinking
We find it hard to accept that we don’t fall on extremes. If you are not a genius then it doesn’t mean you are stupid.
we probably fall somewhere in between them. Likewise, you are not a complete failure if you haven’t got
the so-called success. A person too is not completely bad or entirely good, most people fall into grey zones.
we commonly fall prey to this when we usually do some math. It’s not like you either know the solution or you do not.
The answer is in the middle. The first 50 meters of the road are visible, not the entire highway. But we need to enter
the dark territory of the unknown. However, eventually, something clicks, probably some theorem in geometry or rule in algebra and it’s solved.
In common relationships too, no one absolutely hates you (Unless you have seriously hurt them which is altogether a different ball game) or loves you to the core of your being/existence. we like each other in parts and pieces. It’s
not weird and we do it unconsciously all the time. We watch just the fight scenes of a movie and skip the rest. Listen only to starting 30 seconds of a song and remove it from the playlist.
The “All or Nothing” doesn’t work. By the way, technically it is called Polarized or Dichotomous thinking. Avoid this cognitive distortion.
Freedom
Being free doesn’t mean partying till 5 A.M. in the morning, and definitely not traveling to a god-forsaken place
on a motorcycle. It also doesn’t mean doing a job you like or should I say pursuing a passion.
It’s not about not having problems related to health, sure it helps but still doesn’t count. Does it?
For a while, I thought it means to have decent wealth and savings. It for sure helps to live a comfortable life
and also offers independence to do what you have an interest in, no matter how bizarre it is. And even accountability
crossed my mind. Maybe freedom means not having responsibilities and not being answerable to anyone for our actions
and their consequences.
However, of late it hit me that freedom is about the quality and the state of the mind one has in a moment.
I am free if I can experience a moment(time) without any conditionings of the past, illusions, burdens, fears or
any frame of reference/images.
It means being available completely in the present with an empty slate to write and ready to wipe it off for the
next moment without any longing for what happened or anxiety and anticipation for what will happen.
if it sounds spiritual then maybe it is.
Life is impersonal
The fates neither favor you nor fight against you is the lesson that I learned very late. We don’t know why
a 7-year-old girl gets an inoperable brain tumor whereas a 56-year-old rapist walks away scot-free. A man or woman wins 3-4 consecutive million dollars lottery while the man or woman next to them lives in a gutter living on a state pension or charity of Insta-celebrities.
It is what it is. No one is cursing or blessing up above. In fact, what the other planets did so as to not have life and what earth did so as to have life in terms of karma/prayers is a big existential question. This whole universe is
a cold system operated on chaos and randomness. It is not cruel, it is plainly objective and has no intention either
to give a gift or take away one. Neither happy nor sad endings.
Check Assumptions
Before deciding something, first, check whether your preconceived notions and assumptions are true or not.
For instance, when everybody assumed that people cannot listen to 3-4 hour-long podcasts, Joe Rogan stopped
and challenged this belief. He asked the question what if the opposite were true?
Henry Ford used to emphasize this thinking a lot. In fact, if a candidate when taken on lunch by him
automatically puts in salt and pepper without first tasting the soup then he used to reject them as the employee
assumed that chef hasn’t put in the right proportion based on some hunch or previous non-relatable experience from
a different restaurant.
Likewise, we assume that a person isn’t valuing our friendship or some sort of relationship when he might be
plainly busy or stuck on a deadline to finish a project. In businesses also, don’t assume that customers
don’t want your premium product or service when instead your marketing was poor and most of them do not know about it.
Thy Vox 